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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking upset.

However the latest race is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still