A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
