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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd